Signal Ledger · Methodology
Ledger Methodology
How published Sword signals are scored for follow-through
What Gets Published
Each evening at 5:30 PM ET, the Sword scanner runs the Five-Gate Protocol against the covered stock universe. Every candidate that clears all five gates is scored; the top 3 by Alpha Score publish the next morning as signals. The Signal Ledger records every published signal and its subsequent follow-through outcome.
The Follow-Through Rule
Each signal is scored against a single, fixed mechanical rule — the ±2% / 3-day peak rule. It does not change based on how a signal performs.
| Alert Price | Last-traded consolidated tape at publish time (Day 0). |
| Window | Follow-through is observed over the 3 trading days after publish — Day 0 → Day 3. This window is fixed regardless of the signal's underlying scan timeframe (1H, 4H, or Daily). |
| Peak | The direction-aware favorable extreme reached at any point inside the window — the highest high for an upward signal, the lowest low for a downward signal. |
| Outcome | Follow-through if that 3-day peak moved ≥ 2% in the signal's direction from the alert price. No follow-through otherwise. The result is pending until the 3-day window has fully closed — a signal published this week will not show a final outcome until 3 trading days have elapsed. |
This is a backward-looking, rule-based measurement of what already happened after a signal was published. It is not a price target, a stop-loss level, or a prediction of what will happen next.
What Follow-Through Does Not Mean
Follow-through is not a trading result. The ±2% peak measurement does not assume you bought at the alert price, sold at the peak, or held the position at all. It does not reflect commissions, spreads, slippage, or taxes. A signal can register follow-through and still have closed the 3-day window below the alert price.
Follow-through statistics describe the historical behavior of published conditions under a fixed mechanical rule. They are not performance results, do not represent an achievable return, and do not predict future behavior of any security.
Publisher Exemption
Alpha Sentinel operates as a financial publisher under the exemption provided by §202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This exemption applies to publishers of bona fide newspapers, news magazines, or business or financial publications of general and regular circulation. Alpha Sentinel is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and does not provide personalized investment advice.
Signals, scores, and ledger outcomes are impersonal market observations produced by rule-based algorithmic analysis, made available to all subscribers on the same basis. Nothing on this page or in the Signal Ledger is investment, legal, or tax advice, an offer or solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Alpha Sentinel does not execute trades, route orders, or handle customer funds or securities.
Trading and investing in securities involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance — including historical follow-through rates — is not indicative of future results. You should consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decision.